Expected balance calculator
What a wagering requirement costs on average — and, just as importantly, the point at which this model stops being able to answer the question honestly.
Result
Enter a balance and a multiplier to see the expected cost of the requirement. The calculation runs entirely in your browser.
The break-even multiplier m*
m* = c ÷ h is the playthrough at which expected remaining coins B − T×h equal zero when the full requirement is treated as predetermined turnover. It is not the chance of finishing the requirement.
| Assumed RTP | Contribution | m* |
|---|---|---|
| 96% | 100% | 25x |
| 96% | 20% | 5x |
| 94% | 100% | 16.6667x |
How this calculation works
This calculator estimates how much of a balance survives a wagering requirement on average. It multiplies the amount you actually have to stake by the house edge, and subtracts the result from what you started with.
The model is deliberately small, and every assumption it rests on is listed below. The most important one is that the full requirement actually gets staked — the arithmetic keeps wagering in situations where a real balance would already be empty.
That assumption has a visible failure point, and this tool shows it rather than hiding it. When the expected loss meets or exceeds the starting balance, subtracting would give a negative number, and a balance cannot be negative. At that point the calculator stops reporting an expected balance and explains what broke instead. It also reports the break-even multiplier — the exact playthrough at which that happens.
What you need to enter
| Input | Unit | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Starting Sweeps Coins | SC | The balance you begin the requirement with. |
| Playthrough multiplier | dimensionless | How many times the balance must be wagered. Enter 0 if there is no requirement. |
| Game contribution | percent | The share of each coin staked that counts. Below 100% the amount you must stake rises, and so does the expected cost. |
| Assumed RTP | percent | Your assumption about the game’s long-run return. This is an input you supply, not a measurement this site has made of any game. |
The formula
h = 1 − r
T = (B × m) ÷ c
E[loss] = T × h
E[balance] = B − (T × h)
m* = c ÷ h (the multiplier at which the expected balance reaches zero)
What each symbol means
| Symbol | Name | Unit | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
B | Starting Sweeps Coins | SC | The Sweeps Coin balance the wagering requirement is calculated from. |
m | Playthrough multiplier | dimensionless | How many times the balance must be wagered before it can be redeemed. A 1x requirement means the balance must be staked once. |
c | Game contribution | fraction of 1 (entered as a percentage) | The share of each Sweeps Coin staked that counts toward the requirement. c = 1 means every coin staked counts in full; c = 0.2 means five coins must be staked for one to count. |
r | Assumed return to player | fraction of 1 (entered as a percentage) | The long-run share of total amount staked that a game returns, averaged over an extremely large number of plays. It is an assumption supplied by you, not a measurement of your session. |
h | House edge | fraction of 1 | House edge h is defined as 1 − r. It is the long-run share of each coin staked that the game keeps. |
m* | Break-even multiplier | dimensionless | The playthrough multiplier at which the expected loss equals the whole starting balance. Above it, the model expects the balance to be gone before the requirement is met. |
Worked example
A 5x playthrough on 100 SC at 96% RTP
- The requirement is 100 × 5 = 500 SC of wagering, all of which must be staked at full contribution.
- The house edge is 1 − 0.96 = 0.04, so the expected loss over 500 SC of wagering is 500 × 0.04 = 20 SC.
- That leaves an expected 100 − 20 = 80 SC.
- Bet size does not appear anywhere in that arithmetic. With predetermined turnover T held fixed, expected value is linear in T, so staking 500 SC as 500 bets of 1 SC or as 100 bets of 5 SC gives the same average — only the spread of results changes.
- The break-even multiplier is 1 ÷ 0.04 = 25x: the multiplier at which B − T×h = 0 under predetermined turnover. That is the sign of expected remaining coins, not the chance of finishing.
Takeaway. The multiplier and the house edge multiply together. Neither number tells you much without the other, and the break-even multiplier is where the two meet.
Assumptions
These conditions have to hold for the result to mean what it says. Where one does not apply to your situation, the figure will be wrong in a direction the calculator cannot know about.
- Every coin staked is staked at the same assumed RTP r. Switching games changes r and therefore changes the result.
- With predetermined turnover T held fixed, expected value is linear in T. This follows from the linearity of expectation and holds regardless of how that wagering is split into individual bets — bet sizing does not change the expected total loss when T is unchanged, only how the results spread out around it.
- The full requirement is actually staked. The model does not stop when the balance runs out, which is why it is only valid while the expected balance stays above zero.
- No jackpot contribution, side bet, rake, or promotional credit sits outside the stated RTP.
Limitations
What this calculation cannot tell you:
- This is an average over an extremely large number of repetitions, not a forecast of one session. Half of all real sessions finish below the average, and for a high-volatility game most finish well below it while a few finish far above.
- Because the model keeps staking after a real balance would be gone, B − T×h is usually a lower bound on the true expected balance rather than an exact figure. The published simulator can overshoot required turnover T by up to one stake on the last bet, so that bound is not a theorem under the simulator. Once the result reaches zero the model stops reporting a number, because a balance cannot go negative and a false precision there would be misleading.
- It cannot produce the probability of completing a requirement. That depends on the game’s full payout distribution and bet size, neither of which is an input here.
- Published RTP is a long-run property of a game’s design. It does not describe, predict, or guarantee any individual result.
Method and version
This page uses expected-balance v1.0.0. Every figure it produces comes from that method at that version, and the worked examples are pinned to the same version — when a method changes in a way that moves a published number, the example is re-derived at the new version.
| Version | Date | Change |
|---|---|---|
1.0.0 | 2026-08-15 | First published version. |
Full details of how these models were chosen are on the methodology page.
A note on playing
An expected balance is the centre of a wide distribution, not a result you will get and not a result you are owed. Roughly half of real sessions finish below it.
An expected value is an average over an enormous number of repetitions. It is not a prediction, a target, or a result you are owed. See responsible play.