There is no completion probability here
The figure this site does not publish: the chance of clearing a requirement.
- Read as
- A calculator that knows the requirement, the balance and the RTP can work out the odds of clearing it.
- Actually
- Computing that probability requires the game’s full payout distribution and the bet size, neither of which is an input to any tool here or published for real games, so the site reports no completion probability at all.
Expected value needs only the amount staked and the house edge, both of which are known. The probability of reaching a wagering target before a balance runs out is a different problem: it depends on the entire shape of the payout distribution and on how the staking is divided into individual bets.
Neither input exists. Real games publish, at most, an RTP and a volatility label; the paytable and outcome probabilities are not disclosed. The bet size is a decision, not a property of the promotion.
A probability could be produced by inventing a paytable. It would carry more apparent precision than any figure the site does publish, and it would be describing a game nobody is playing. That is the trade this site declines.
The variance explorer does show a distribution, but for an explicitly stated model game with two outcomes — not for any real one. Its percentiles describe that model. Reading them as completion odds for a real game imports an assumption the model does not support.
Where a number cannot be established, the page says so rather than omitting the question. An absent figure with a stated reason is a more useful answer than a plausible one with no traceable origin.
The method behind this figure
Theoretical expected balance after wagering — expected-balance v1.0.0. Its formula, assumptions and limitations are published in full on the methodology page.
Related: Variance explorer, Methodology, Responsible play, Glossary